市場都會有一個把大廠產能吸掉的主軸，這次是 AI 伺服器。目前參照 ems 的料件評估，開始有缺的是 tan cap 和 sp cap，mlcc 還在警戒線外有待觀察
原文是說 2026 會大缺，但現在看應該是還要煮一陣子
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" What Can the 2018–2019 Passive Shortage Tell Us About 2026?
The current passive market is not without precedent. The last major disruption occurred in 2018 and 2019, when multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) became one of the most constrained component categories in the supply chain.
That shortage was driven by two forces acting at the same time.
First, demand surged across multiple fast-growing end markets. Smartphones began requiring well over 1,000 MLCCs per device, while electric vehicles and advanced automotive electronics drove thousands more per platform. At the same time, the expansion of connected devices and early IoT adoption added further pressure to already tightening supply.
Second, supply was structurally constrained. Between 2016 and 2019, major manufacturers such as Murata, TDK, and Taiyo Yuden reduced or exited production of legacy and general-purpose MLCC lines in favor of higher-margin, high-capacitance products designed for premium automotive and advanced handset applications. Capacity expansion was limited, in part because adding MLCC production lines requires complex layering processes and long qualification cycles, often taking eight to twelve months or longer. Investment flowed toward the most profitable segments rather than commodity components.
The result was a prolonged imbalance where demand accelerated faster than supply could realistically respond.
Why Does This Matter Heading Into 2026?
Today’s passive market is not experiencing the same broad-based shortage conditions seen in 2018 or during the 2021 through 2023 supply cycle. However, the underlying pattern is beginning to re-emerge.
Similar to 2018, demand for passives is increasing sharply as 2026 server and GPU platforms require a higher concentration of advanced passive components. This growth is being driven by high-density compute platforms, data center infrastructure, and next-generation server architectures that demand greater power regulation, stability, and signal integrity. At the same time, material costs have risen, and capacity has remained relatively flat or has been reduced following the oversupply conditions of 2024, when manufacturers focused on cost controls rather than expansion. The result is a tighter starting point for 2026, with less buffer in the system and fewer opportunities to absorb demand shifts once capacity is spoken for.
Why Is Demand for Passives Rising So Quickly?
One of the most important forces shaping passive availability in 2026 is not how many systems are being built, but how many more passive components each system now requires.
Modern server, networking, and high-density compute platforms consume substantially more capacitors and connectors to support power delivery, voltage regulation, and signal integrity. As architectures become more power-dense, passive content per system continues to rise, even if overall unit volumes remain relatively stable.
This dynamic can be easy to miss. While attention is often focused on processors and memory, the passive footprint of each system has grown quietly but meaningfully.
Passive components are built and scaled very differently than advanced processors and memory, and that difference directly affects how capacity is added.
Leading-edge semiconductors such as CPUs, GPUs, and high-performance memory are produced in extremely high volumes around a relatively small number of standardized designs. That concentration supports large, fast investments in new capacity because demand is deep, predictable, and consolidated.
Passive components, by contrast, are produced across thousands of variations that differ by size, voltage, material, tolerance, and qualification requirements. Even when overall demand increases, that demand is spread across many individual part numbers rather than concentrated into a small number of high-volume SKUs. Expanding capacity for one specification does not automatically relieve constraints elsewhere.
As a result, capacity expansion tends to be incremental and selective. Suppliers prioritize committed, long-term programs where volumes are locked in early and production can be planned efficiently, leaving less flexibility for spot demand or late-stage adjustments.
How Are Material Costs Affecting Passive Pricing?
Heading into 2026, supply risk is increasingly being shaped by economics as much as availability.
Throughout 2025, manufacturers have faced sustained increases in copper and silver, two materials that sit at the core of many passive components. Copper is widely used in connector contacts, lead frames, and internal capacitor structures, while silver is commonly used in electrode pastes and conductive layers within ceramic and tantalum capacitors. As those input costs rise, they directly increase the cost to produce finished components.
At the same time, upstream materials used in printed circuit boards (PCBs) and related assemblies, including copper foil and laminate materials, have also seen cost inflation. Together, these pressures are influencing both pricing strategies and supplier prioritization decisions.
Which Passive Categories Are Most at Risk in Early 2026?
While exposure varies by specification and use case, several passive categories are consistently flagged as higher risk heading into Q1 and Q2 2026:
Tantalum capacitors, where lead times have extended significantly and pricing pressure continues to build
Polymer capacitors, which are seeing early shortages and announced price increases
Aluminum electrolytic capacitors, where lead times have stretched beyond historical norms
High-capacitance MLCCs, particularly those used in server and data center platforms
Connectors, where rising copper and gold costs are driving price increases
Risk is not uniform across all parts, but availability is becoming increasingly dependent on specification, qualification, and timing.
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